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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."